*”Every war begins like opening the door to a dark room. No one knows what’s hiding in the darkness.”* — Hitler
Today, Pakistan stands exposed before the world for nurturing terrorism—providing shelter and training to militants. Except for Turkey, no other nation seems willing to support Pakistan. Amid growing tensions between India and Pakistan, while some peace-lovers appeal for efforts to prevent a war due to the potential for massive loss of life and economic damage, a majority of Indian citizens express rage—wanting Pakistan erased from the world map.
Since its formation, Pakistan has been governed by rulers who operate under the shadow of its military. Unable to confront India directly, the Pakistani army has long trained and harbored terrorists to launch attacks on India, claiming the lives of innocent civilians. For decades, it has conspired to destabilize India’s democracy, peace, and economic progress. At present, whether it’s civilian leaders or military officials, all seem to be under the grip of terrorist networks.
Taking into account the internal political condition of Pakistan, it’s clear that if India wages war now, the religious extremist groups may grow stronger, with even average Pakistanis viewing them as saviors of their nation. Such a situation may allow these terror groups, currently a menace to both societies, to rise to power—something that benefits neither India nor Pakistan.
For the past three days, reports suggest Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been meeting with the chiefs of the three armed forces in preparation for war. Modi and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh have also cancelled their planned visit to Russia on May 9. Meanwhile, border skirmishes continue with exchanges of gunfire between Indian and Pakistani troops. While Pakistani military leaders issue warnings that India could attack at any moment, India maintains strategic silence.
It’s been 13 days since the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam claimed the lives of 27 innocent tourists. The central government faces criticism for failing to identify or eliminate the perpetrators. In response, India’s armed forces are preparing with full military capability for a potential strike on Pakistan.
In such a wartime scenario, it’s essential to consider the stance of India’s neighboring countries. If war between India and Pakistan becomes unavoidable, what kind of support can India expect from its other neighbors? This is a critical question.
Following a revelation by a former Pakistani military officer suggesting China’s involvement in the Pahalgam terror attack, it’s likely China will encourage—but not directly support—Pakistan in a war. Indirect support could come in the form of arms supplies and intelligence sharing. Amidst the ongoing trade war between the US and China, several foreign investors have pulled out from China and shown interest in moving to India. In that context, China may wish for a prolonged war to deter such a shift. Tensions on the Indo-China border also provide strategic incentive for China to indirectly oppose India by isolating it diplomatically.
Bangladesh, though economically linked to China, is unlikely to support Pakistan. It may maintain partial silence, oppose the war, and appeal for regional peace. Sri Lanka, mired in economic crisis, may not support any side directly. However, due to its deference to China, it could take a neutral stance and issue calls for peace. Nepal may officially remain neutral, but pro-China elements within the country may engage in anti-India rhetoric. There have been instances in the past where Nepal, encouraged by China, expressed dissatisfaction with India.
India has always strived for peaceful relations with its neighbors. But if a war with Pakistan becomes inevitable, the silence of these countries could leave India isolated. China’s silent opposition, pro-China forces in Nepal, and neutrality from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will all factor into India’s wartime strategy. While diplomatic efforts to preserve regional peace must continue, no internal security situation should be underestimated. It is vital for India to anticipate the stance of each neighboring country and act with strategic foresight.